tazruby2000
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Info on breeding a Ghazt, kinda of strange.

[Post New]by tazruby2000 on Feb 20, 14 10:50 AM
I was wondering why the number is so high on breeding a Ghazt. I got this info of off Wikia. Also this info was on the new Humbug monster for some reason.

There is roughly a 1% chance of breeding this successfully. It is uncertain whether some combinations work better than others. For the shortest wait time per attempt, Entbrat and T-Rox is recommended. According to statistics, doing 70 attempts gives you a 50% chance of successfully breeding a Ghazt; and doing 650 attempts gives you a 99.9% chance of successfully breeding a Ghazt. (Note: the monsters you try to breed to get the Ghazt most likely have to be the same level to increase the chance of getting one.)

Notice the 70% gives a 50%, but 650 attempts gives you a 99.9%. The second set of numbers seem pretty high. I would figure around 140 attempts not no 650.

 
1luvgaming
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Re:Info on breeding a Ghazt, kinda of strange.

[Post New]by 1luvgaming on Feb 20, 14 11:06 AM
WOW 650 tries

Thanks for the info, now I know why I don't have my Jeeode.

Is it possible that may be a misprint?

 
tazruby2000
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Re:Info on breeding a Ghazt, kinda of strange.

[Post New]by tazruby2000 on Feb 20, 14 11:35 AM
Some of it was just added because i never seen (doing 650 attempts gives you a 99.9% chance of successfully breeding a Ghazt.). This could be a misprint.

 
moncilla
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Re:Info on breeding a Ghazt, kinda of strange.

[Post New]by moncilla on Feb 20, 14 11:53 AM
Taz, Sweetie, the correlation is not LINEAR; it is EXPONENTIAL.

Actually, the number of max attempts we need to "most likely" get an ethereal is 460...

We had this discussion earlier in this forum in the thread "Ethereal (Spiritual) Monsters Breeding Info..." Here is what I wrote on Dec.8:

"If breeding an ethereal would be the chance of fifty-fifty, and it would be an independent event, and unbiased. Our chance is already set at 1%, not 50%. What does it mean: it means that the chance of NOT getting an ethereal is 99%. Now, the real question is, how many times on the row we need to "fail" that the next try would "most likely" give an ethereal.

In order to explain that lets go back to the coins. I want to flip a head. The probability of flipping a head is 1/2 = the number of ways a head could happen/the number of possible outcome. Now, I start to flip the coin, and it is head 7 times in the row. What are my chances that I flip a head for the 8th time, as well. Although, my chances are always fifty-fifty with each individual flip, that I can get 8 heads IN THE ROW is: 1/2x1/2x.....x1/2=1/2^8=0.07, less than 1%!

Now, we know that in our ethereal breeding problem the chance that we DON'T get an ethereal is 99/100. What we know: we know the possibility of the individual event: 99/100; we know the probability: 1/100. Therefore we are looking for: how many times IN THE ROW we need to "fail" to "most likely" get an ethereal for the next try, mathematically: (99/100)^n=1/100, n=?
I hate to say, that n is approximately 460. Therefore, 460 failures in the row would mean that the next breeding is "most likely" will produce an ethereal. Approximately 70 failures in the row would give us a 50% chance for getting an ethereal. If you have failed 100 times, the chance that your 101th time will give you an ethereal is 64% (F.O.A is completely correct!!!! ).... So, don't give up! You are getting there!"


http://forums.bigfishgames.com/posts/list/140/260075.page

(0.07 = 7%... sorry for the typo )

Edited on 02/20/2014 at 12:06:52 PM PST


 
1luvgaming
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Re:Info on breeding a Ghazt, kinda of strange.

[Post New]by 1luvgaming on Feb 20, 14 1:15 PM
WOW Thank you.

Well, 460 is better than 650.

Sooo I guess BBB/wiki or whoever wrote that is wrong. It was a direct quote from somewhere that Taz posted.

Maybe they could take a class from you.

 
HatesTimers
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Re:Info on breeding a Ghazt, kinda of strange.

[Post New]by HatesTimers on Feb 20, 14 1:35 PM
1/2^8=0.07

1/2^8=1/256=0..0039

If you have failed 100 times, the chance that your 101th time will give you an ethereal is 64%

The chance that the 101th time will give an ethereal is 1%. Success or failure in the previous 100 tries has no effect on the chance that the 101th try will work.

 
HatesTimers
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Re:Info on breeding a Ghazt, kinda of strange.

[Post New]by HatesTimers on Feb 20, 14 1:49 PM
Well, 460 is better than 650.

Sooo I guess BBB/wiki or whoever wrote that is wrong.


The 460 number was for a 99% chance to succeed, and the 650 was for a 99.9% chance.

 
chingchangcat
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Re:Info on breeding a Ghazt, kinda of strange.

[Post New]by chingchangcat on Feb 20, 14 3:10 PM
My highest, and most earnest, regards to all of you for figuring the odds on breeding a Ghazt...I am impressed, and disheartened, at the same time!

 

Re:Info on breeding a Ghazt, kinda of strange.

[Post New]by Nuriadedibujo on Feb 20, 14 3:34 PM
I think all this numbers are only numbers. I noticed that the possibilities of breed an ethereal are bigger if your level in the game is bigger. If you look at the people level 30, you see they have all the ethereals. Ten Ghatz, twelve Jeeodies, etc... I breed a Jeodie in my first try, with a shellbeat level ten... But I can't breed that damned Ghatz, and is the monster with more intents breeding i have.

(Sorry for my english!! Is not my language)

My grumphyre appears at thrird time, but the Gahtz is hidden!!! And my Entbrat is level 15!! So, it's all a matter of luck at the begginning, but if you are advancing in the game the ethereals will appear!!!for sure!!!

 
sullyr33
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Re:Info on breeding a Ghazt, kinda of strange.

[Post New]by sullyr33 on Feb 20, 14 3:52 PM
well I am lvl 30 and no grumpry for me!!! lol
is the one that I cannot get I have tried many different things.
someday the stars will be right!
good luck everyone

 
tazruby2000
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2,399 Posts

Re:Info on breeding a Ghazt, kinda of strange.

[Post New]by tazruby2000 on Feb 20, 14 3:57 PM
Level of the game would have nothing to do with having all the ethereals. I have Ghazt, Jeeode and Reebro. I don't have a Grumpyre. I been trying for the ethereals on the ethereal island with the ethereals i have and no different ones. I been level 30 for a long time, i believe was back in late October or Early November. It is basically luck and patience. I also have a Ghazt for Plant Island and a Reebro for the Air Island.

 
moncilla
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Re:Info on breeding a Ghazt, kinda of strange.

[Post New]by moncilla on Feb 20, 14 4:40 PM
HatesTimers wrote:
1/2^8=0.07

1/2^8=1/256=0..0039

If you have failed 100 times, the chance that your 101th time will give you an ethereal is 64%

The chance that the 101th time will give an ethereal is 1%. Success or failure in the previous 100 tries has no effect on the chance that the 101th try will work.


Thank you. I stand corrected about the first part ... However, the second part is only true, if we examine each breeding as a SEPARATED, INDIVIDUAL event. As with the coins, EACH, INDIVIDUAL flip will have 50% chance to result in heads, however, with every consecutive head, my chances are exponentially lowered to get a head for the next toss... Just think about it! What are the chances that I can toss heads 20 times IN A ROW - don't tell me it is 50%!

 
DB_Guy
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Re:Info on breeding a Ghazt, kinda of strange.

[Post New]by DB_Guy on Feb 20, 14 5:13 PM
moncilla wrote:Thank you. I stand corrected about the first part ... However, the second part is only true, if we examine each breeding as a SEPARATED, INDIVIDUAL event. As with the coins, EACH, INDIVIDUAL flip will have 50% chance to result in heads, however, with every consecutive head, my chances are exponentially lowered to get a head for the next toss... Just think about it! What are the chances that I can toss heads 20 times IN A ROW - don't tell me it is 50%!


HatesTimers has it right: Assuming successive breeding attempts are independent of one another, the probability for a successful breeding is EXACTLY THE SAME for each and every trial.

If b is the probability of a successful breeding attempt (or coin flip), then the probability of b being successful and b not being successful is always : P(b) + P(not b) = 1.

So the probability of *at least one* success in n trials is 1 - P(not b)^n.

HOWEVER the probability for any specific trial is P(b) regardless if it is trial number one or trial n. This means if you have been unsuccessful for n number of attempts that your probability of success does not change on the n + 1 attempt.

The probability of coin flip 20 being heads is 50% no matter how many tails have shown up previously. If the probability changes for the last trial "just because" all previous attempts had the same result, then you no longer have a sample of independent attempts and need a different formula to calculate it.

 
kimberph
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Re:Info on breeding a Ghazt, kinda of strange.

[Post New]by kimberph on Feb 20, 14 6:04 PM
I'd like to re-enforce what DB_Guy and HatersTimers said. I've posted the below notes a couple different times, but apparently it merits posting them again. The most important single word in the paragraph below is WITHIN. The odds are not 50% on the 70th try, they are 50% (or more accurately 51%) within the first 70 tries combined.

And I'd like to comment on the phrasing of 70 tries gives you a 50% success rate. The correct way to think about this is that half the people trying for an ethereal will succeed within their first 70 tries. But remember, the problem with a 1% success rate is, of course, the tail of the distribution. While it is true that 51% of people will succeed within the first 70 tries (.99^70 = .49), it is also true that only 87% of people will have success within 200 tries and 99% of people will have success within 500 tries. If you happen to be in that trailing 1% it is really painful. And remember that we all need 4 successes just to get the basic ethereals. And this is all multiplicative so that tail for getting all 4 gets even bigger.

In order to not completely drive the really unlucky players crazy, the game would actually need an "attempt counter" that slightly increased the odds of success after each failure (or that just had a guaranteed success on the 200th attempt or something like that). Since we have no evidence that there is an attempt counter, it is probably safe to assume that some people will just be out of luck.

 
moncilla
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Re:Info on breeding a Ghazt, kinda of strange.

[Post New]by moncilla on Feb 20, 14 6:30 PM
DB_Guy wrote:
moncilla wrote:Thank you. I stand corrected about the first part ... However, the second part is only true, if we examine each breeding as a SEPARATED, INDIVIDUAL event. As with the coins, EACH, INDIVIDUAL flip will have 50% chance to result in heads, however, with every consecutive head, my chances are exponentially lowered to get a head for the next toss... Just think about it! What are the chances that I can toss heads 20 times IN A ROW - don't tell me it is 50%!


HatesTimers has it right: Assuming successive breeding attempts are independent of one another, the probability for a successful breeding is EXACTLY THE SAME for each and every trial.

If b is the probability of a successful breeding attempt (or coin flip), then the probability of b being successful and b not being successful is always : P(b) + P(not b) = 1.
.


I have said the same thing. And I don't argue about it any further.

 
Zoppy
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Re:Info on breeding a Ghazt, kinda of strange.

[Post New]by Zoppy on Feb 20, 14 9:05 PM
tazruby2000 wrote:Level of the game would have nothing to do with having all the ethereals. I have Ghazt, Jeeode and Reebro. I don't have a Grumpyre. I been trying for the ethereals on the ethereal island with the ethereals i have and no different ones. I been level 30 for a long time, i believe was back in late October or Early November. It is basically luck and patience. I also have a Ghazt for Plant Island and a Reebro for the Air Island.


Well sort of. Higher level in general means they've played for longer. Having played for longer means more time to have gotten lucky.

So in essence having a higher level means you have a better chance to have gotten an Ethereal but not because any change in the probability of one coming up.

 
Zoppy
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Re:Info on breeding a Ghazt, kinda of strange.

[Post New]by Zoppy on Feb 20, 14 9:19 PM
And I'd just like to add that all of this math that I can just barely get is why I save every diamond I get and jump on sales as much as I can. That's how I was able to buy two Ghatz and two Grumpyres to compiment my two Jeodes I bred and one Reebro. As happy as I am about the new guy on Earth that just means I won't be buying a second Reebro in a few months. I'll get him and send him off to Ethereal island.

 
1luvgaming
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Re:Info on breeding a Ghazt, kinda of strange.

[Post New]by 1luvgaming on Feb 21, 14 2:57 AM
kimberph wrote:
In order to not completely drive the really unlucky players crazy.....,
it is probably safe to assume that some people will just be out of luck.


Too late ... I am already bonkers trying for those elusive babies.
I'll just accept that I am in the 'out of luck' percentile.

Thanks so much everyone for sharing. Now I know it's not just me still practicing Patience & Persistence. .

 
Zoppy
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Re:Info on breeding a Ghazt, kinda of strange.

[Post New]by Zoppy on Feb 21, 14 3:28 AM
1luvgaming wrote:

Thanks so much everyone for sharing. Now I know it's not just me still practicing Patience & Persistence. .


You sure aren't alone in that unlucky percentile.

Persistence is easy for me. Patience on the other hand...

 
chingchangcat
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Re:Info on breeding a Ghazt, kinda of strange.

[Post New]by chingchangcat on Feb 21, 14 3:18 PM
Zoppy wrote:
1luvgaming wrote:

Thanks so much everyone for sharing. Now I know it's not just me still practicing Patience & Persistence. .


You sure aren't alone in that unlucky percentile.

Persistence is easy for me. Patience on the other hand...



Persistence and patience are starting to lose their appeal...at some point, the 'carrot and stick' method only works so long!

 
 
 
 
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